We look forward our Week Ten matchup as James Madison (5-2) becomes the 131st FBS team on our schedule when they visit the Louisville Cardinals (4-3) this Saturday. Though we’ve seen the Dukes of JMU over the years play Delaware, South Dakota State, and Colgate, the latter two in the FCS playoffs, we now get to see how quickly they ‘ve adapted to FBS. This week’s game takes us beyond the foes among their ConferenceUSA competition. They get a dose of the Power Five with the ACC Cardinals, a team hot off an upset over No. 20 Wake Forest, 48-21. On the other hand, the Dukes, who reached No. 25 a few weeks ago, fell in their last two games vs. Georgia Southern and Marshall.
The Dukes go to Louisville with an incentive few FBS teams have known before. Even if they win their conference, not only do they not win the official title, they can’t even go to a bowl game. For some reason, this is another stupid NCAA statute. The Cardinals come to play with a totally realistic incentive. Currently at 5-3, their next win makes them eligible for bowl berths. Pretty good as HC Scott Satterfield sat on a hot seat entering this season.
The Duke’s devastating” D”
JMU’s defense ranks near the top in many FBS categories in its inaugural season. Their 293.3 yards allowed per games ranks them 10th. Their 54.9 in rushing yards allowed ranks them first. Their average of 3.00 sacks per game rates them 16th, and their 8.9 tackles places them third. They’ll be facing a tough Run/pass QB in the Cardinals Malik Cunningham. We saw him defeat Wake in OT in 2019, 62-59, and watched him fall last season to Virginia, 33-32. This season, he’s tossed for 1,254 passing yards and 5 TDs while rushing for 541 yards as the team leader and crossing the goal line 11 times. This should be an interesting battle.
Missing in action?
When the Dukes go on offense, they average 480.7 yards and 38.7 points per game ranking 18th and respectively. In six games of their seven contests, QB Todd Centeio has completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 1,780 yards and 17 touchdowns with four INTs. Rushing, he’s gained 333 yards and scored five touchdowns. JMU averages 194.1 yards per game on the ground ranking at 31st in the FBS. Leading rusher Percy Agyei-Obese accounts for 556 yards and four scores.
However, in last week’s 26-12 loss to Marshall, Centeio did not play. A pulled oblique muscle worsened from an injury against Appy State earlier. Redshirt Frosh QB Billy Atkins filled in. No report yet from HC Curt Cignetti about who will play versus the Cardinals. The Dukes had two weeks to practice with a bye last week.
Louisville’s defense looks pretty formidable with 32 sacks and 14 INTs to date. DL YaYa Diaby leads in sacks with 5.5. Five players each have two INTs including LB Yasir Abdullah who’s second in sacks with 4.5. Not knowing if Centeio participates makes it difficult to predict with the Cards favored by 7.5. All we can say is if he plays, this will be an exciting game. If not…? If anything, JMU realizes how important depth matters playing at the FBS level.
SEC in CFP: one, two, or three?
The big game this weekend pits No. 1 Georgia hosting No. 2 Tennessee (tied with Ohio State in AP). Think about this: last season one-loss Alabama defeated undefeated Georgia, 48-21, in the SEC Championship. The teams finished one and two respectively in the CFP. Georgia won the CFP taking revenge over Bama, 33-18.
Fast forward to this weekend. Georgia wins and finishes 2022 as outright No. 1. UGA, Tennessee, and Bama win their remaining regular season games. Then, Bama defeats UGA in SEC Championship. All three SEC teams have one loss. We know Ohio State and Michigan will lose at least one game. If the winner of their game and Clemson and TCU all finish undefeated, the three SEC schools will all still claim to have the right to go the CFP having lost one and won one against each other.
What will the selection committee argue? How? Will one-loss teams take a back seat to three undefeated teams? Makes sense, possibly, but who knows what goes on behind those closed doors of the selection committee? Who argues? Who rants? Who threatens? Who complains? Who backs off? Who reasons? Who takes control? Who listens? Who interrupts?
Three one-loss SEC teams possibly, one way or another
If Tennessee defeats UGA and loses to Bama in the championship, the SEC will still make that argument with three one-loss teams among top teams nationally. UT would have wins over both UGA and Bama to get the nod to the CFP. If all others remain undefeated as suggested, there will be major outcries from all eliminated. Rightfully so? This justifies expansion of course, but it can’t come soon enough. The hope calls for some more upsets if fans want to see other conferences represented instead of having three SEC squads. Best thing for final clarification is if UT or UGA wins all their remaining games. One team remains undefeated, and the others have two or one and get sorted out among all the others.
What surprises are in store for the CFP?
If Austin Peay can’t knock off Alabama and if Georgia Tech can’t off the Bulldogs in non-conference games (just kidding), fans of the non-SEC variety will have to root for the likes of SEC teams such as LSU, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Kentucky, Auburn, or Vandy to spring the surprises. Maybe one or two can. Of course, there could be some surprises awaiting The Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 out there as well. When it comes to hoping who wins the Saturday clash between the Bulldogs and Volunteers, neutral fans can feel free to pick their” poison” when it comes to the SEC. When the dust settlers, the action in the selection room may be more intense than what happens on the gridiron. Maybe they should televise that in “pay per view”! Should be fun to watch.
Changing gear – Week Ten among the Ivies
In a more simplified version of college football, eight members play ten games including all seven conference foes, or in this case, “League” members for the championship. It’s a very clean model to determine an Ivy League championship when two or even three members tie for first in the end. No playoff game ever happens. After their Week Ten, traditionally the third week in November, all Ivy League players stop practice and prepare for final exams. An undefeated, ranked FCS team will not even be considered for the playoffs. Traditionally, football has no precedence over final exams among the Ancient Eight.
TV jumped the gun, however
ESPNU announced that it will televise the 138th edition of THE GAME on November 19 at noon when Harvard (5-2,3-1) hosts Yale (5-2, 3-1). Lovely, but did anyone at ESPNU realize another Ivy League rivalry can be more significant that day? Princeton (7-0, 4-0) hosts archrival Penn (6-1,3-1) that same day at 1 pm. Penn fell to Brown last Saturday, 34-31, to mar their prefect record. They already defeated Yale, 20-13. On November 12, Penn hosts Harvard and Princeton visits Yale. If the non-New England teams both triumph that day, ESPNU will be missing the more significant rivalry among the Ivies.
Hopefully, the network management will have the foresight to get that game moved to the evening that Saturday for the people who care. Otherwise, switch among the many ESPN networks to give precedence to the true Ivy League title game. You’d think the Ivy Leaguers at the top there would plan for this. Of course, as Thurston Howell III on Gilligan’s Island would begrudge, “They must be Yale men!”
Our current FCS playoff picture
We keep Week Fifteen open all season for FCS playoff possibilities. D-2, D-3, or even FBS championship games may be considered. We give the FCS games priority. We look for games withing easy travel distance and preferably day games. Here are options we foresee today based on current “local” conference standings. Of course, the December 3 date this season offers the second round of games. A possible team we target could be eliminated the week before, so we have to remain flexible.
Southern Conference possibilities
Among the SoConn, No. 10 Samford (7-1, 5-0), No. 11 Mercer (7-1, 5-1) and No. 12 UT Chattanooga (6-2, 4-1) fight for first and will most likely two survivors will earn a bid in the 24-team pool. Down the stretch, Samford visits UTC (6-2, 4-1) on November 12 and hosts Mercer on the next and final regular season Saturday. UTC already defeated Mercer, but fell to No. 19 Furman (7-2, 5-1), 24-20 last week. Any combination of these four can possibly get in. Our hopes rest in Samford and UTC to make it that weekend as both are within driving distance for us. Been to UTC twice last year, but never to Samford in Homewood, Alabama.
Ohio Valley options
In the Ohio Valley, No. 15 UT Martin stands (5-3, 3-0). SE Missouri though 6-2, 2-0 ranks lower at No. 20. And very unusual in this seven-team conference, these two teams don’t play each other. Both have common conference opponents Eastern Illinois (2-6, 1-2) and Tennessee State (3-5, 2-1) left on their slates. The SE MO State Bears play Murray State (1-8, 1-3) to finish their conference play. The Skyhawks of UTM play Kennesaw State (4-4) in Week Ten. We’re not sure either will warrant a home game if they win heading into round two. But if either, we hope UTM since the Skyhawks are closer to us.
We look forward to seeing some FCS playoff game this season. If not, we’ll see something else at another level. ACC championship maybe.
Review of Week Nine and Preview of Week Ten among our top-ranked teams
No. 1 Georgia defeated Florida, 42-20, and of course we saw the other No. 2, Ohio State come to life with 9:26 reaming to defeat No. 16 PSU we reported on, 44-31. Other top teams had bye weeks to get ready for Week Ten. No. 4 Clemson visits Notre Dame and No. 6 Alabama readied for Saban to coach against Brian Kelly at No. 15 LSU. One or two of those possible upsets we mentioned looming here?
Power Five teams on our slate playing in Week Ten
Auburn (3-5,1-4) lost to Arkansas, 41-27, and Bruce Harsin received a $15.5 MM payoff from Auburn to go find another job while they search for new HC. The Tigers go to Mississippi State this weekend. Kentucky (5-3, 2-3) got walloped by No. 2 Tennessee, 44-6, looks to recover when they travel to Mizzou (4-4) Saturday. So much or an upset bid when we see them host No. 1 UGA on November 19.
Purdue (5-3, 3-2) got knocked off course to the Big Ten West title by Wisconsin, 35-24. Next for the Boilers comes Iowa with no offense to West Lafayette (4-4, 2-3). Iowa is the perfect barometer of the B1G. The Hawkeyes have beaten B1G cellar dwellers Northwestern and Rutgers, and have fallen to Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois with combined records of 23-1. Among our Big Twelve participants this season, Texas (5-3, 3-2) lost to No. 18 Oklahoma State two weeks ago, 41-34. Next, they travel to Kansas State (6-2, 4-1) who just annihilated these same OSU Cowboys in a big surprise, 48-0. Baylor (5-3, 3-2) who we will see tussle with Texas on November 25, defeated Texas Tech, 45-17. The Bears roam into Boomer Sooner territory this weekend.
Groups of the Other Five in Week Nine and Week Ten
Army (3-4) had a bye to get up to play Air Force for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy in Arlington, TX in Week Ten. Navy went to 3-5 with a win over Temple in OT, 27-20. Now, they start a tough three-game stretch with Cincinnati who fell to UCF last week and out of the Top 25, 25-21. The Army Navy game in 2022 will be another low scoring slugfest. Hope it’s freezing in Philly on December 10.
Ball State’s now (5-4, 3-2) with a 27-20 win over Kent State this past Tuesday in MACtion. Ohio U (6-3,4-1), who we plan to see Ball State host on Tuesday, Nov. 15, did the same that night with a 45-24 victory over Buffalo. In American Athletic play, Houston (5-3, 3-1) defeated USF, 42-27, and head into SMU (4-4, 2-2) in Week Ten.
C-USA and Sun Belters
In C-USA, Middle Tennessee State (4-4, 1-3) finally won their first conference game of 2022 upending UTEP, 24-13. HC Rick Stockstill’s Blue Raiders will try to keep that momentum going when they meet Louisiana Tech (2-6, 1-3) in Ruston for week Ten. MTSU rival Western Kentucky (5-4, 3-3) comes off a loss to North Texas State, 40-13. They head to play Charlotte, (2-7, 2-3) fresh off a 56-23 win over Rice. UTSA (6-2, 4-0) stayed in first alone last week defeating North Texas, 31-27. They head to UAB to meet the Blazers (4-4, 2-3) to defend their 2021 championship.
In the Sunbelt, Texas State (3-5, 2-3) lost to Southern Miss, and they will play ULM (2-6, 0-4) in a must-win for TSU HC Jake Spavital to survive his hot-seat once again. The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (4-4, 2-3) who we will see TSU host on November 26, also fell two weeks ago to Southern Miss. Saturday, they host Troy (6-2, 4-1) on a five-game winning streak. Their last triumph on October 20 came over 6-2 South Alabama in a defensive battle, 10-6.
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