Miami Lakes, FL – The most competitive of the two semifinals for the College Football Playoff (CFP) Championship kicks off here tomorrow night at 7:30 EST. We look forward to witnessing this historic game among the others we’ve attended in this first such CFP format. Aside from a select few media mavens or pundits, who other than collegefootballfan.com can attest that they’ve seen all four remaining participants play this season? Ohio State looks to be the favorite to take if all based on their current playoff success.
We prefer real time action to make our calls
In addition, including two CFP games already, we attended games where eight of the twelve CFP teams played. We feel that our observations made in person are somewhat more beneficial than listening to broadcasters. They tend to commentate with a preference for one team or another. Corporate orders? Their job entails building viewership for network favorites. For them, their goal stimulates numbers for ratings. That’s what they get paid for. As a true fan of this great sport, we call them as we see them.
That being said, here are our observations leading us to favor the Penn State vs. Ohio State in the grand finale slated for January 20 in Atlanta. We attended the regular season meeting between these two on November 2. Penn State extended the lead in the first period. Zion Tracy’s 31-yard pick-six on OSU’s first series led to a 10-0 lead. However, turnovers, careless penalties and questionable play calling and time management by the Lions helped the Buckeyes to a 20-13 victory. PSU QB Drew Allar converted with TE Tyler Warren for a 33-yard catch and run all the way to the Ohio State three with 7:35 left to play. It was time for HC James Franklin to coordinate with his first-year OC Andy Kotelnicki get six. Then, they could decide to go for the tie or for the win with two.
Leave it to James Franklin against Ohio State
First play – Kaytron Allen up the middle for no gain. Second play – Allen up the middle for one. Penn State still had all three time-outs left. Time to assess play options? Motivate players? Get everyone one on the same page? No. Third play – Allen up the middle to the one. Fourth down – no time out. Incomplete pass to Khalil Dinkins on a crossing pattern along the end line. Through it all, no time-outs, no interaction between head coach with assistants or players. No imagination. No strategy. No deception. Most importantly, no touchdown.
Improvements since then
In the Minnesota game, PSU demonstrated better clock management. Also, a surprising fake punt keyed PSU with a much-needed road win, 26-25. Against Oregon, the Lions demonstrated a more balance offense to mount a potential comeback. With 3:41 remaining, they climbed back in with a 14-yard TD pass from Drew Allar to Harrison Wallace. However, once again, we saw Franklin make a similar mistake as he had the previous season against Michigan. He decided to go for two, but failed. Analytics? Baloney! Why would any coach do that? Down by eight now, it put more pressure on the offense to score for a tie with two points instead of one. It put great pressure on his offense. Allar threw an interception on the next Nittany Lion possession. Hopefully, Franklin has learned from this – again.
Penn State defense takes pressure off James Franklin
Since then in the CFP, we watched his defense take the lead with two pick-sixes and dominated a high-scoring SMU team to win, 38-10. They held QB Kevin Jennings to 196 passing yards and -25 rushing. With a dominating defense and supposedly with All-American LB/DE Abdul Carter ready to go, back from a shoulder injury, getting the lead kept Franklin from making any mistakes under pressure. From this observer, he now looks to be more involved with his team along the sideline than he was against Ohio State and prior.
Against Boise State, a very good football team overall, the Lions held key RB Ashton Jeanty. He led the nation with 2,957 yards rushing and over 7 yards per carry to only 104 yards on 30 carries. They held him to 3.5 per carry. Their offense rushed for 216 yards and Allar threw three TD passes, two to stellar TE Tyler Warren. They won 31-14. The pressure is on James Franklin to win now.
Saw Notre Dame win big over Navy, 51-14
As another Navy fan stated to me after this game, regretfully “Navy imploded” in this one. Their specialty teams put them in holes throughout, and ND took advantage. Against a UAB team earlier, USNA executed a very balanced offense. They did not depend on the run as they had in the past. When Navy didn’t shoot themselves in the foot, for a few brief moments during the game, the Mids showed they could move the ball with their revised triple option. Even Irish fans after the game commented that Navy basically seemed too excited about playing the Irish and made mistakes.
In games the Irish played after, they rolled past hapless Florida State. For all the bluster that Army brought, unlike Navy, the Irish just shut down their offense. They controlled with no problem and no forced turnovers. Against USC, two late, long TD interceptions made for an overwhelming 49-35 score. The Trojan team just seemed to have no fight left late in this game. Lincoln Riley – coached teams rarely play good defense against any good offensive teams.
The Irish defeated Indiana, 27-17. Admittedly, their defense played well, but the Hoosiers also struggled against the other two best defenses the played this season. They fell to Ohio State, 38-15, and upended Michigan, 20-15. Take away these three scores and the IU offense averaged 48.5 ppg in the ten others they played, only 17.5 against good defenses. Funny to hear the commentary during this game. Before new HC Curt Cignetti decided to move from James Madsion to IU, his wife said, “Why don’t you check out the schedule first?” He looked and responded, “There are a lot of winnable games here.” Probably knowing he could win with players he had at the Sun Belt program he brought transfers from.
Not sure how the “experts” do any better than real fans
From the offensive perspective, “experts” say ND QB Riley Leonard seems to be the runner to stop. In games we noted, he doesn’t’ seem as formidable as Jenkins or Jeanty coming into those games. The Lion game plans focused on them. The PSU defense thrived. In the 27-17 win over Indiana, the 98-yard romp by Jeremiyah Love accounted for 98 yards on his lone touchdown run among 216 Irish rushing yards. Ashton Jeanty nor any other runner ever came close to anything like that against the Lion defense. Riley only ran for 30 yards and threw for 201 against Indiana. Not numbers that can overcome this defense.
Fighting Irish relied on a few big plays thus far
In last week’s 23-10 win over Georgia who we saw win “lackadaisically” against Auburn, 31-13, early in the season with Carson Beck under center, this defense held the Bulldogs to only 10 points with an inexperienced QB Gunner Stockton (who has an impressively strong arm) and an offensive line that was struggling in this game. Riley threw for only 90 yards and led his team in rushing with 80 yards among 154 overall. The big blow by Notre Dame came on Jayden Harrison’s 98-yard kick-off return to open the second half. They only kicked their third field goal after that.
The other Irish points came on a 13-yard TD drive set up by a Georgia fumble and the Mitch Jeter FGs of 44, 47 and 41 yards. We’ll see how the Fighting Irish step up against a running attack of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen who combined for 401 yards and four TDs in two play-off games. Allar threw for 298 yards and three TDs. With their dominant defense halting key offensive cogs and the Lion defense running efficiently, they look to have two advantages from this perspective. As long as Marcus Freeman doesn’t’ throw some things to totally befuddle Franklin, I see the Nittany Lions advancing to the CFP championship in Atlanta, 28-17. Penn State possesses more firepower than the Irish to win this game.
As for the Goodyear Cotton Bowl – Ohio State over Texas
Ohio State is red-hot. Right now, they look confident and unstoppable. We thought Oregon would advance. When the game came on the radio an hour or so after leaving the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, I couldn’t believe the Buckeyes already dominated. I’d seen the Ducks beat Wisconsin Badgers on November 16, 16-13, but I figured that road win against a staunch Badger defense that day and an anemic offense was just a matter of timing. QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Tez Johnson played together again, and the offense purred against Washington and against PSU in the Big Ten Championship.
My feeling, however, is that bye week definitely throws teams off. For many years during very one-sided and unentertaining Super Bowls, the two-week lapse threw the timing off even in the pro ranks. I hope the CFP expands to 16 teams rather than condense to eight. Every year will be different in results regarding upsets, but I really do believe the time off is detrimental for most teams against foes coming off super-charged home wins at a neutral site.
Cam on the run and pass
Seeing Texas defeat Arizona State, 39-31 last week did not impress me. Quin Ewers just doesn’t impress as a take-charge QB. His reactions seem slow at times mentally and physically. The defense is good, but I don’t’ see them any better that those among some of the higher ranked teams seen already on our schedule this year. The Sun Devils RB Cam Skattebo runs hard and fast, and he made Texas miss tackles. Great player, but the Longhorns had no answers for him. He got stronger as the game progressed. Ohio State led by QB Will Howard has weapons with Treyvion Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in the back field. Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith among others in the Buckeye receiving corps will be the best they have faced all season.
Texas fell only to Georga twice. However, if the likes of Vanderbilt, Clemson and Arizona State can put 24+ up on the board against them away from Dallas, I don’t see them holding off Ohio State at Jerry’s House. Buckeyes prevail, 35-21.
Edited by Steve Koreivo – member of Football Writers Association of America and Author of Fifty Years of Tailgate Tales: The Good, the Fun and the Ugly. Click on the title to buy your copy on Amazon today. And after enjoying the adventure, please submit a review on the same site. Thanks!
