Lebanon, TN – Eight teams on this year’s slate will meet head-to-head in games we will attend in what we’ll call our “probably too early game predictions.” Thus far, collegefootallfan.com has presented previews of 26 teams we’ll see play in 2024. Among these, we reported on 11 playing under new Head Coaches; seven among preseason Top 25 contenders; and eight others meeting in MACtion games. With these four clashes occurring early in the season, we’ll have covered 34 of the 41 teams we plan to see in action this year.
Three of these too early game predictions look to be fairly competitive games. All these teams look to improve in 2024. Regarding the fourth of these, we’ll just chalk it up to: “Welcome them to the FBS!”
September 7 – Tulsa at Arkansas State: Red Wolves bring experience, but can they stay focused?
For our first trip to Jonesboro, Arkansas, we see Butch Jones in his fourth season with the Red Wolves as Head Coach. At 6-7 last season, they’ll welcome Tulsa from the American Athletic (AAC). The Golden Hurricane under HC Ken Wilson, in his second year after Indiana, comes in after a 4-8 mark in 2023.
Jones’s fourth year should display a positive impact from recruiting efforts. His Red Wolves return 10 starters on offense and six on D. Soph Jaylon Raynor returns as a QB with experience and solid skills at ASU. He and two top RBs return with combined rushing yards of 1,671 yards and 18 TDs. Corey Rucker and Courtney Jackson come back as their leading pass catchers from a year ago. Key returnees on the Oline and several transfers give the Red Wolves a massive front. Experience abounds up front on defense and in their linebacking corps. S Trevian Thomas led the team in tackles with 91 and posted two INTs.
Tulsa time
Tulsa’s Wilson hasn’t been able to load up as quickly in his shorter recruiting process. However, the Golden Hurricane shows progress at QB with redshirt freshman Kirk Franics returning. He improved the Tulsa passing game last year. Top two RBs Anthony Watkins and Bill Jackson return as does leading receiver, Kamdyn Benjamin. He and TE Ethan Hall become primary targets. The O-line returns only one experienced player. Newcomers will have to step up quickly in their second game against the experienced ASU defense.
With only four starters coming back on defense, the Hurricane will have its hands full with an ASU offense looking to peak going into a game the week after at Michigan. Experience and depth from new transfers on the Red Wolves defensive line should give them the dominance they need over the Golden Hurricane offense to win this one. In our first of too early game predictions, the Red Wolves get the edge. If they focus too much though on their trip to Ann Arbor the following week, a possibility looms that Tulsa can remain in this game. Hopefully the home crowd gives ASU an edge to offset that attitude.
September 14 – BYU at Wyoming; Cowboys on the rise
This too early game prediction sets up as a non-conference between the two former Mountain West (MWC) rivals. Now in the Big XII, the Cougars look to ramp up into full conference play after meeting the Cowboys in Laramie. BYU HC Kalani Sitake looks for improvements at QB where former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon battles Jake Retzlaff to start. A stable of RBs will need to improve over last year. Six major receiving targets return from last year’s 5-7 squad. Unlike BYU teams of the past, however, last year the Cougars averaged only 205 yard per game through the air. Chase Roberts led all receivers last season with 573 yards and five TDs. C Connor Pay leads the offensive blocking up front with more experience around him than last year with several newcomers.
Six starters come back on defense; three in the secondary. They remain among the six leading tacklers in 2024. Sitake seeks improvement on the defensive front. LB Ben Bywater returns from an injury and Jack Kelly, Jr. transferred from Weber State to strengthen the linebacker positions.
Best of our early game predictions
We missed out on recognizing Wyoming Head Coach Jay Sawvel as a first-year HC with the Cowboys. He served as their DC from 2019-22. Junior QB Evan Svoboda starred in brief appearances in the past. RB Harrison Waylee netted 947 rushing yards and five TDs last season. To get the offense clicking in the early part of 2024, depth and experience return up front to help accelerate the upcoming learning curve in the Cowboy back field.
Wyoming’s defensive line will be among the strongest in the Mountain West. Seven returnees on defense return under Sawvel who was their DC last season to provide consistency. Safety’s Wyett Ekeler and Issac White return from strong Junior seasons.
Wyoming’s experience with two games under their belts by this time will have them focused on a run at the MWC title with a game against Boise late in the season. They’ll have some impetus here having lost to the Cougars in their previous nine meetings. Craig Bohl retired from Wyoming with this program on the rise and leaving his son Aaron, the previous LB Coach, as Sawvel’s new DC. In this too early game prediction, this should be a close, hard-fought game. We’ll give the Cowboys the edge with their defense against an offense still seeking early season cohesion. It also seems that Craig Bohl put the Cowboys in the right direction, and Sawvell aims to continue his legacy.
September 28 – Navy at Alabama-Birmingham: Navy ball control and pressure will decide this one
In our first conference clash that’s not a season opener, the Mids of Navy travel to meet the UAB Blazers in an American Athletic (AAC) game. Both seek to improve back to winning ways. Last year, Navy defeated UAB, 31-6, finishing 5-7. The Blazers, under first-year HC Trent Dilfer of NFL fame, went 4-8.
The Mids plan to revert back to developing a more run-oriented game. New OC Drew Cronic teaches a hybrid Wing-T attack with triple option and run-pass options. A too early game prediction here: Navy can only be better at QB this season. Junior Blake Horvath steps in to start and Soph Braxton Woodson, who we witnessed lead Navy to a 14-0 win over Charlotte, backs him up. FB Alex Tecza returns as leading rusher. Slot back Eli Heidenreich led in rushing and receiving from that position. He will be called upon often in this new offensive scheme. In Navy’s favor, five starters return on the offensive line.
Navy defensive keys
Defensively, LB Colin Ramos returns with 110 tackles posted a year ago. Rayuan Lane and DeShaun Peele each picked four passes in the secondary. The Mids come off a critical AAC home game against contender Memphis the week before. Air Force, who they normally got a bye before in previous years, will be a road game in Colorado Springs the week after. Trap game impact for Navy here.
Question marks for both teams to be answered
UAB enters 2024 with HC Trent Dilfer looking to improve upon his first 4-8 season in the FBS. QB Jacob Zeno passed for 3,126 yards and 20 TDs. Isaiah Jacobs and redshirt-Freshman Lee Beebe will be called upon to fill in for rushing yards gained by top performers in 2024. A WR among several has to step up. Bryce Damous returns as a solid TE. UAB considers themselves deeper on the line, but it’s still too early to tell for early game predictions here.
Defensively, only four starters return on defense. Transfers supposedly add strength. However, when one reads “transfers,” does that rely imply improvement? When players transfer from Indiana, Georgia Tech and Purdue with a handful of tackles in only a few games played, does that indicate you’ve strengthened a team? Again, in all preseason analysis, success is too questionable in early game predictions.
Navy’s defense held the Blazers to six points last season. We always question the Navy secondary regarding speed. The academies have to maintain possession generally and need to prevent opponent offenses from quick-strike scoring. With three games under their belts, will Navy have good rhythm by now with their new offense?
“If’s” to be answered
Dilfer’s team will also play with three games behind them including at Arkansas two weeks prior. Can Navy bring pressure to the UAB passing game? If they can, the secondary will take on the UAB receivers. If not, they will be challenged. Will Horvath master the new offense effectively as Navy did in previous years, they will keep UAB’s offense off the field and will hold their own. A lot of “ifs” in this one. Either way, a close game looms in the end. We will also see USNA play once again four weeks later. In our 700th game, they will face top-five Notre Dame in the New Jersey Meadowlands.
October 4 – Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State – JSU welcomes KSU to FBS
Our fourth game to complete our too early game predictions looks too easy to forecast. Jacksonville State returns from its initial season of FBS/C-USA season competition with a mark of 9-4 (6-2 in C-USA play). They held their own against mid-level and lower competition. HC Rich Rodriguez, following a successful career at West Virginia, Michigan and Arizona, leads the Gamecocks into Year 3. With skillful recruiting in the transfer portal and QB Logan Smothers, one of two starters from 2024 returning from injury, Jacksonville expects to challenge for Conference-USA supremacy.
Owls take a flying leap
Kennesaw enters its first season in FBS/C-USA play. We attend this Friday night game conveniently scheduled between two other games to attend to add Fifth Third Bank Stadium to our FBS Stadium objective. HC Brian Bohanon leads the Owls into his tenth season with a 71-23 record. Inexperienced at QB, three players including his son vie to start with only 11 pass attempts among them. In the meantime, the offense adapts in a second year running the pistol option offense. Nine starters return on defense, but last season’s opposition in a 3-6 year posted wins again three D-2 programs. Big adjustments lie ahead to the FBS and C-USA level this season every week. The question is, will “Rich Rod” and team show any mercy against a program that defeated them three of four times as FCS teams?
-ed. by Steve Koreivo Member of the Football Writers Association of America
Please buy and review my book, Fifty Years of Tailgate Tales: The Good, the Fun and the Ugly. Tales are about just about every Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) team when I saw them play for the first time as well as at least one significant game that I attended for each team program over the past 50 years. It’s a unique story. Enjoy!